The upcoming Anthropic IPO promises large payouts, but not equally for everyone. Investment funds like Menlo Ventures and Sequoia expect billions. However, according to Anthropic’s S-1, none of them own 5% of the shares, which is the threshold for inclusion in the list of major shareholders. This is highly atypical for IT IPOs, where leading venture investors usually hold double-digit stakes. Why did this happen, and who will be the main beneficiary?
Why did VC funds get crumbs?
The reason is simple: Anthropic’s size. With a private valuation of $965 billion, 1% of shares is worth almost $10 billion. For example, Menlo Ventures’ position of $14 billion accounts for only about 1.5% of the company, according to Bloomberg.
Venture funds did not receive large stakes because Anthropic actively sold shares to strategic partners. This changed the traditional ownership structure, where VC funds usually hold dominant positions.
Amazon: The main beneficiary of the IPO
Amazon is likely to be the biggest financial beneficiary of the IPO. In 2023, Amazon pledged to invest up to $4 billion in Anthropic, and then injected billions more. Most of the investment was structured as convertible bonds – debt that converts into equity upon IPO or sale.
- According to the S-1, as of June 30, Amazon held $6.2 billion in convertible bonds.
- As Anthropic’s valuation grew, the value of these bonds increased significantly.
- In its own reports, Amazon valued its bonds at $97.9 billion as of June 30.
Accounting games and real cash
The increase in the value of Amazon’s convertible bonds forced Anthropic to reflect this in its financial statements. In the first half of 2026, the company recorded $72.4 billion in the line item “change in fair value of convertible bonds, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs.”
This is a non-cash item; no real money left the company. Amazon’s bonds can be converted into 1.84 billion shares, but there is a limit of 12% of the “partially diluted” share count. Amazon can waive this limit.
Additional Amazon investments
Bonds are not all. In the second quarter, Amazon additionally invested $10 billion in non-privileged preferred shares, investing $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds.
The total amount of Amazon’s investments, including billions in bonds from 2023 to 2025, reaches approximately billions. This makes Amazon a key player in Anthropic’s future ownership structure.
Not just shares: AWS and Google
In addition to the increase in share value, Amazon will receive significant revenue from Anthropic, which has committed to spending at least $110 billion on AWS over the next 10 years. Google is also a winner:
- Google owned about 14% of Anthropic early last year.
- The company invested another $10 billion in April.
- Google’s stake is now estimated at 5.6% after dilution.
- Google has also secured at least $114 billion in cloud contracts with Anthropic until 2033.
Conclusions for investors
“While venture capitalists prepare for their payouts, the S-1 clearly shows: the biggest winners of the Anthropic IPO will be tech giants like Amazon, who supported a potential competitor at an early stage and are now selling it most of its computing power. The S-1 even warns that some of these cloud providers are creating competing AI models and their interests do not always align with Anthropic’s.”
This is a classic case where strategic partners skim all the cream, leaving VC funds with only crumbs. To evaluate profitable CPM and cheap hypothesis testing, it is important to look at the whole picture, not just the stated investments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What CPM should be considered profitable with such investments?
When evaluating advertising campaigns, a profitable CPM is one that provides a positive ROI. In the context of the Anthropic IPO, CPM is not a direct indicator, but it reflects the cost of attracting attention to a startup that is already valued at hundreds of billions. For us, arbitragers, unit economics are important, not hype.
Is it worth investing in AI startups at an early stage?
As the Anthropic example shows, early investments can bring huge profits, but only if you are Amazon or Google. For ordinary investors, the risks are significantly higher. It is important to analyze not only the potential, but also the deal structure, and who the strategic partner is.
What is cheaper: banner advertising or influencers for promoting an AI product?
This depends on the target audience and campaign goals. Price comparison shows that banner advertising can be cheaper for 1 million impressions, but influencers often provide higher engagement. For AI products, where expert authority is important, influencers can be more effective, despite a higher CPM. Always calculate ROI.
Conclusion
Anthropic IPO is a prime example of how major players like Amazon and Google use strategic investments to generate colossal profits, significantly exceeding the returns of traditional venture funds. This is a lesson for anyone looking for budget alternatives to seeding and striving for maximum ROI. Always count the money, not the promises. Want to know how to get the most out of every ruble? Read our cases on ROI optimization.